洪景山／中央氣象局，氣象資訊中心。
鑒往知來
經驗上我們總是可以歸納出「現在是過去的累積，未來當然也和現在有關」。宗教上也有類似的說法：「若知前世因，今生受者是；欲知來世果，今生做者是」。人類科學發展的過程中類似的想法俯拾即是，如萊布尼茲（Gottfried Leibniz，1646~1716）曾說過「Everything proceeds mathematically……if someone could have a su cient insight into the inner parts of things, and in addition had remembrance and intelligence enough to consider all the circumstances and take them into account, he would be a prophet and see the future in the present as in a mirror.」，意思大意是說，萬事皆遵循數學的原則，如果我們有足夠記憶能記住過去的一切，或有夠深的智慧能理解一切事物發生的道理，那我們可以知道，未來就是現在的投影。著名的物理學家拉普拉斯（Pierre-Simon Laplace，1749~1827）也說過：「We may regard the present state of the universe as the e ect of its past and the cause of its future. … if intellect were vast enough to submit the data to analysis, the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.」，意思類似，但說得更直接：宇宙的現在就是過去的果，也將是導致未來的因。萊布尼茲和拉普拉斯都是人類史上非常偉大的科學家，他們有著相同的理念，即「以數學和物理定律『鑒往知來』」，而天氣預報正是具體實踐此一理念的科學之一。只是，要從科學的角度來實現天氣預報上「鑒往知來」的理念，卻不是一件容易的事。
